Oil Throughput — Hormuz (IEA OMR Mar 12 2026 · live AIS in demo mode)
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— % of global supply · EIA baseline 21M bbl/day
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OUTBOUND (oil out)
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INBOUND (ballast)
Active Vessels in Zone (30-min window)
0
Total
0
Tankers
0
Cargo
0
Iranian
Hormuz Closure — Since Feb 28 2026 Source: IEA OMR Mar 12 2026 · BCA Research
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Days since closure
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Bn bbl transited (est.)
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Bn bbl withheld
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Transits Mar 1–25 · Lloyd's List
Supply Gap Analysis — Bypass Routes & Buffer Cliffs
Bloomberg Mar 28 · ZeroHedge · IEA OMR Mar 12 · WorldOil Mar 27
⚠️ BYPASSES MAXED OUT (Mar 28-29): Saudi EW at record 7 MMb/d · UAE Fujairah above nameplate at 1.9 mbpd · No further bypass upside — Bloomberg/ZeroHedge
days · 400mb across 32 IEA members · first deliveries Mar 20
US SPR Cliff (Jul 9)
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days · 172mb @ 1.43 mbpd
Float Storage Depletion (~May 15)
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days · 186mb @ 1.8 mbpd
🛰️ Live Intelligence Feed
Connecting to intel agent…—
SA Petroline
7.0 mbpd
5.0 net exports · MAXED
UAE Fujairah
1.9 mbpd
above nameplate · AT CAP
Total Bypasses
7.25 mbpd
SA+UAE+Iraq+Jask · maxed
Structural Gap
~10.75 mbpd
irreducible · no bypass upside
Latest Intelligence Articles
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🚧 Tehran Toll Booth — IRGC Q-Route Permission System
gCaptain · USNI News · Lloyd's List · NBC News · BNN Bloomberg · Al Jazeera
Toll Per Vessel
$2M
CNY via CIPS · ad hoc · Lloyd's List
Total Transits
146
Mar 1–28 · vs 2,652 same period 2025
Daily Rate (now)
~5/day
5.4% of pre-war · Mar 28: 4 in one morning
Vessels Stranded
~2,000
Both sides · IMO Sec-Gen Dominguez · 20k seafarers
⚓ Q-Route: Qeshm Island → Larak Island (Iranian Territorial Waters)
Vessels diverted from standard TSS lanes into a narrow IRGC-escorted corridor through Iranian waters. Ships must pre-submit manifests, crew lists, cargo details & bills of lading to IRGC-approved intermediaries. Approved vessels receive IRGC naval escort. Iran's FM Araghchi: "Open, but closed to our enemies."
First toll-paying vessel: KARACHI (IMO 9903413) — Pakistan-flagged Aframax (gCaptain Mar 16) Mar 23: 2 Indian LPG tankers + zombie dark ship + Iraqi VLCC (AIS off) transited (Bloomberg) Mar 28: 2 LPG tankers + 2 bulk carriers via Larak-Qeshm — first bulk carriers confirmed (Bloomberg/ZH) Payment: CNY via CIPS · 30 confirmed Q-route transits · 26 dark ships in 2 weeks (USNI) GNSS jamming: 10+ incidents since Feb 27 (Kpler) · 8 dark ships >290m detected (Windward AI)
✅ Friendly Nations (Permitted)
🇨🇳 China🇮🇳 India🇷🇺 Russia🇮🇶 Iraq🇵🇰 Pakistan🇲🇾 Malaysia🇹🇷 Turkey🇪🇬 Egypt🇰🇷 S. Korea
⛔ Excluded
US · Israel · UK · EU states · Western-affiliated vessels
⛔ Vessels Turned Back
🇰🇳 SELENMar 24
First documented admin refusal — non-compliance, no IRGC permission · gCaptain
🇨🇳 CSCL INDIAN OCEANMar 27, 03:50 UTC
Turned back despite China being "friendly" — IRGC command disruption after Tangsiri killed Mar 26 · USNI
🇨🇳 CSCL ARCTIC OCEANMar 27, 03:50 UTC
Sister vessel; same turnaround event — COSCO returned to UAE waters off Dubai · USNI
🇲🇭 LOTUS RISINGMar 27
Marshall Islands-flagged; turned back by IRGC — 4th vessel refusal in 72h · Maritime Executive
"Not only is this illegal, it's unacceptable. It's dangerous for the world." — Sec. Rubio, G7 Mar 27 2026· Iran drafting formal toll legislation (week of Mar 28)
🛰 SAR satellite (Sentinel-1) — detects regardless of AIS or darkness
📡 Kpler multi-source AIS — terrestrial + satellite + proprietary signals
🔍 Windward AI daily fusion — SAR + AIS + cargo flow cross-validation
👁 UANI Ghost Armada — 573 vessels tracked; 14 Iranian tankers in SE Asia since Feb 28
⚠ Starboard Maritime — AIS spoofing detection (fake stationary positions)
EVASION PIPELINE
Kharg Island → AIS-dark through SoH → Indian Ocean → EOPL anchorage off Johor (Malaysia) → STS transfer → China 10+ GNSS jamming incidents documented near loading terminals (Kpler, since Feb 27) 5 STS transfers observed by satellite in a single day (Mar 22, UANI)
💥 MARKET CASCADES
GOLDMAN SACHSBARCLAYSCNBC
16×
War Risk Insurance
vs pre-war baseline
$22.5/MMBtu
LNG NE Asia Spot
+100% · was ~$11
+140%
Singapore Jet Fuel
~$230/bbl
BRENT SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Current
$112.57
GS/Barclays prolonged
$130–150
US stress test
$200
20,000
Seafarers Stranded
NBC News · CNN
~2,000
Vessels Stranded (IMO)
IMO Sec-Gen · both sides
Crude & Energy Prices
Brent Crude
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WTI Crude
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Nat Gas
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Weather · Strait of Hormuz
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Key Markets
Inflation Impact & Strategic Reserves
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Vessels in Zone (yellow=>6h waiting, red=>24h detained)