Avg Vessels/Day
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30-min window
Avg Tankers/Day
—
oil & product
Avg Cargo/Day
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container & bulk
Frontline (FRO)
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tanker stock
Hormuz Supply Gap Analysis — Updated Mar 29 2026
Bloomberg Mar 28 · ZeroHedge · IEA OMR Mar 12 · S&P Global · WorldOil Mar 27
⚠️
BYPASSES NOW AT CEILING — NO FURTHER UPSIDE
Saudi EW pipeline hit record 7 MMb/d (Mar 28). UAE Fujairah at 1.9 mbpd (above nameplate). Both routes fully saturated. Structural ~10.75 mbpd gap cannot be closed by pipeline alone. — Bloomberg · ZeroHedge Mar 28-29 2026
Hormuz Q-Route Flow
~2 mbpd
<10% of pre-war 20 mbpd · IEA OMR
Bypass Routes (MAXED)
7.25 mbpd
SA 5.0 + UAE 1.9 + Iraq 0.25 + Jask 0.1 · AT CEILING
Total Flowing Now
~9.25 mbpd
Q-route 2 + bypasses 7.25 vs pre-war 20 mbpd
Structural Shortfall
~10.75 mbpd
Irreducible — no bypass capacity remains · Bloomberg
Supply Waterfall — 20 mbpd Pre-War Baseline (Updated Mar 29 2026)
~2
Bypass 7.25 ⚠MAX
SPR 4.4
GAP ~10.75 mbpd ← STRUCTURAL
■ Hormuz Q-Route ~2 mbpd
■ SA 5.0 + UAE 1.9 + Iraq 0.25 + Jask 0.1 = 7.25 mbpd [AT CEILING]
■ IEA SPR ~4.4 mbpd (until Jun 9 cliff)
■ Uncovered ~10.75 mbpd — irreducible
Bypass Route Detail
| Route |
Max Cap. |
Effective |
Peak Recorded |
Status |
Key Risk |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Petroline (East-West) |
7.0 mbpd |
5.0 mbpd (net) |
7.0 mbpd ← NEW RECORD Mar 28 |
⚠ MAXED OUT |
7 MMb/d gross (Bloomberg Mar 28). 5 mbpd crude exports via Yanbu + 2 mbpd domestic + ~800 kbd products. AT CEILING. Bab el-Mandeb Houthi risk remains. |
| 🇦🇪 UAE ADCOP (Habshan-Fujairah) |
1.8 mbpd |
1.9 mbpd ↑above cap |
1.9 mbpd (Mar 20-24) |
⚠ AT CAPACITY |
Mar 20-24: 1.9 mbpd (+57% vs 2025 avg) — above nameplate using stored crude. ADNOC pipeline at ceiling. Habshan crude ops resumed despite Mar 19 gas hub strike. (WorldOil/Bloomberg Mar 27) |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq Kirkuk-Ceyhan (ITP) |
1.6 mbpd |
0.25 mbpd |
0.45 mbpd (target) |
PARTIAL |
Restarted Mar 16-18; severe disrepair; KRG volumes pending |
| 🇮🇷 Iran Jask Terminal |
0.3 mbpd |
0.10 mbpd |
~2 mb loaded Mar 7 |
SPORADIC |
Goreh-Jask pipeline; bypasses Hormuz via Gulf of Oman; Kpler Mar 7 |
Strategic Buffer Countdown
IEA SPR Cliff · Jun 9
—
411.9 mb · 32 IEA members · ~4.4 mbpd · 90 days
US SPR Cliff · Jul 9
—
172 mb · Bryan Mound + W.Hackberry + Bayou Choctaw · 1.43 mbpd
Float Storage Depletion · ~May 15
—
186 mb (238 stranded tankers) · 1.8 mbpd depletion · Windward AI
Crisis phases:
Phase 1: Feb 28–Mar 10 · Closure onset (15 mbpd→2 mbpd)
Phase 2: Mar 10–18 · Ruwais strike · near-total blockade
Phase 3: Mar 18+ · Q-Route toll system (~8 ships/day)
Vessels in Zone — Since Closure Feb 28 · Pre-war baseline ~110/day · IEA phase model
Brent Crude — Since Closure (USD/bbl · pre-war baseline $80)
Oil Volatility (OVX) vs Equity VIX — Since Closure
Tankers vs Cargo in Zone — Daily Counts
Eastbound (oil out) vs Westbound (ballast) — Daily
Strait of Hormuz — Annual Oil Transit 2010–2026 (million bbl/day · EIA/IEA)
Country Exposure to Hormuz Disruption
Country Exposure to Hormuz Strait
Daily Breakdown — Last 28 Days